The fact that Montenegro was featured in a recent Bond flick and has been positively publicised internationally as an attractive and interesting place to visit hasn’t hindered the tourism market growth either.  And on the real estate side of things – well, some massive names have invested in developments and the key words in Montenegro are ‘high’ and ‘end’!  I.e., massive money is being encouraged to be ploughed into massive developments.  And here’s where the problem seems to lie…

The laws in Montenegro are quite clear-cut – one cannot invest in immovable property if one is a foreign individual – only foreign commercial entities can purchase property in Montenegro – but as is the way of the world, where restrictions exist so do ‘work arounds’, and as a result the real estate scene in the country is littered with Russians and some British and American buyers too for that matter.  The larger ruling party in the coalition that is in power wants to rapidly expand upon the significant economic successes they have already reaped by easing the laws pertaining to foreign individuals’ rights to own real estate in the nation.  Their argument is that there are plenty of ways for individuals to flaunt the laws already, so why not update them!

We can understand their point – after all, during a recent eleven month period, 53% out of a total of 900 million euros in Foreign Direct Investment that entered Montenegro went directly towards the acquisition of property!

But – the smaller coalition ally is up in arms about the fact that national assets such as forest and parkland, beaches and waterfronts are being and are at further risk of being sold off forever, and landing up in the hands of individuals or entities who have only their own profits in mind rather than the future of Montenegro and the Montengrin people. 

Well, sorry, but we’re with the smaller coalition ally on this one!  It’s all well and good to have a strong and healthy real estate industry – but it has to be an ethical and sustainable industry that encourages responsible behaviour.  Come on Montenegro, get with the program!!

For, what’s not to love about Brazil?  As stated it has had its credit rating upgraded by S & P and it’s expected that the other credit rating agencies will follow suit.  The upgrade means that levels of Brazilian governmental debt are seen as acceptable and that the nation is as far away as it needs to be from lurching into another financial crisis, so now’s a good time to look more closely at what Brazil has to offer.

And for property investors, that is quite simply an awful lot!

According to expert analyst Amy Lauren Young from REITology, there is a housing shortage to the tune of about 8 million units in Brazil already.  That’s not taking into account the rate at which the population of the country is expanding.  That equals opportunity for developers and for investors. 

Okay, so affordability is still a key question in Brazil where the growing wealth of the nation has had limited effect directly on the majority of people’s lives.  But that is something the fantastic president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has firmly in his sites.  He’s not dubbed a populist for nothing you know! 

You can expect to see personal wealth levels increase, you can expect to see fewer people living below the breadline, you can expect to see a great improvement in infrastructure that will benefit the entire nation – because these are promises made by a president now famous for keeping his promises.  What’s more, you can expect to see an overall upgrading of life in Brazil over the coming years as the nation moves from being a strong economic player to being a global economic power. 

Now that two huge discoveries of oil have been made off the Atlantic coast of the nation, everything for the future success of Brazil’s economy is looking rosy.  The finds are believed to be the biggest in thirty years and are expected to push Brazil into the top ten oil producing nations in the next ten years.  Naturally that raises interest levels in the nation!

But if all this talk of oil, personal wealth expansion, growing local real estate demand and so on and so forth is of little interest to you – try this – Brazil has one of the fastest growing tourism industries in the world.  This also represents opportunity for investors.  And David Beckham is building a football academy in Brazil, and the numbers of golf courses, luxury property developments and resorts are increasing…so all in all there is choice, opportunity and massive potential in Brazil!  You just have to open your eyes to see it, it’s not difficult!

Foreign property buyers seeking so called ‘lifestyle homes abroad’ are still attracted heavily to the coast in Croatia.  These types of buyers are typically looking for a holiday home that doubles up as an investment, and they are lured to coastal living.  Croatia certainly doesn’t disappoint these buyers – but it’s fair to say that the surge in demand for coastal real estate in Croatia has pushed the prices of property skywards!  So much so that you can no longer consider Croatia an emerging market in price terms alone! 

These buyers who are happy to have enjoyment from their homes and rent them out to the growing numbers of tourists arriving in the nation will still look at Croatia as a more attractive investment than Cyprus for example, or Malta.  These two locations have been made less attractive almost overnight thanks to their adoption of the euro and the resultant effect that this has had on making their property far more expensive to British buyers buying with pounds in their pockets for example.

One suggestion for those who still find Croatia too expensive is to move away from the coast and look inland for investment opportunity.  Well, if you look inland for investment opportunities Zagreb comes to mind!  As the capital of Croatia it boasts even higher prices than large parts of the coast though, so it is not an affordable alternative!

But if you’re a risk taker and you’re not afraid of hard work you can find stunning, well priced property stock in Croatia’s inner regions…but you will need a good lawyer on your side who can help you determine who has the right to sell you any real estate you are interested in.  You will also be going totally against the current trend for foreign buyers in Croatia and will therefore find it difficult to resell or even rent your property out if you want it as an investment.

For those seeking alternative investments in Croatian real estate – what about land banking or buying into the commercial property market instead though?  Both will likely stand you in good stead over the medium to long term.

In terms of where the residential market is going, Croatia’s government have been quite famous for the restrictions they have put on planning proposals to protect certain parts of the nation in the past.  Backing them up are the people who are becoming more vociferous in their protests against the nation being sold off to foreign buyers.  A recent example of this is the public outcries against the proposed sale of part of the island of Piskera in the Kornati National Park. 

However, the government of Croatia is also aware that it can strengthen its economy if it has an active real estate market and this of course therefore has an influence on the planning protection – or rather the lack of it.  What’s more, as the nation progresses towards EU entry, so it has to free up restrictions on its real estate market.  This should give courage to risk averse buyers.  In terms of whether there is room for growth in the market – well, pricing needs to be mentioned at this point!  Prices have been increasing dramatically and some might say unsustainably and this is certainly worth consideration if you’re a buyer on the verge of buying in now.  You are unlikely to be able to make a fast buck by turning real estate around and flipping it back on to the market in Croatia given the current economic climate.  That said, Croatia is still downgraded because of its pre-EU status meaning it could witness a strong upward price swing in the medium term again.

What’s more, despite the rise in the cost of real estate, the cost of living in Croatia remains affordable – additionally the quality of life in Croatia is so fabulous.  The pace of life is slower, the climate is more attractive than the British climate for example and the people are welcoming.  Croatia is improving infrastructure and healthcare standards, it is accessible from the UK easily and affordably…and it is a stunning, beautiful, dramatic and incredibly fascinating country.  Unsurprisingly therefore, it is rising in terms of its appeal among would-be overseas retirees.  We wouldn’t be surprised if Croatia becomes something of an overseas retirement hotspot after it achieves EU entry therefore – meaning that this is another point worth considering if you’re wondering whether it’s worth buying property in Croatia now.

These alternative pockets of potential were promoted heavily at the recent International Madrid Real Estate Exhibition; Brazil as a nation covered more square meters of exhibition space than any other country.  There were developers, experts and even government officials from Brazil on hand at the event, proving just how much effort the entire nation is putting into the promotion of its broad attraction and appeal in real estate terms.

Brazil’s economy is strong and strengthening apace, with economic forecasters at the nation’s central bank having recently increased their predictions for economic growth from 4.5% GDP expansion this year to 4.8%.  And it is specifically this strength in economic terms that is ensuring growing demand across all sectors of the population for property.  However, nowhere is this demand being felt more acutely than in the middle to lower income brackets in the most urbanised areas.

This sector of the population now has freer access to more funds to fuel their rental of real estate – and with continued foreign direct investment pouring in to ensure a greater number of jobs are created across Brazil, housing demands in the most urbanised areas where employment opportunities are greatest are intense.

Any investor wishing to work on Sam Zell’s advice would do well to target this strong and increasingly affluent demand. 

In our opinion here at Amberlamb, Bahia is one area of the country where there is likely to be strong investment into property in Brazil among investors in the coming months. 

Bahia is rising in appeal among international tourists with year on year tourism growth at between 5 and 8% according to the region’s Secretariat of Tourism.  Between 1997 and 2005 the number of arrivals rose from 3.6 million to 5 million and these numbers are continuing to expand.  Interestingly however, US and UK arrivals are very low at the moment with most tourists coming from Portugal, Argentina and France.

Clearly there is massive potential here for investors – but Bahia is not just about tourism.  It’s the economic engine of the north-eastern region of Brazil, home to the Camacari Complex for example, which is the largest integrated industrial complex in the Southern Hemisphere and a massive employer.  Investors looking for commercial property potential in Brazil will find it in Bahia, investors looking for emerging tourism market potential will find it in Bahia and investors looking to go with Zell’s suggestion of targeting the middle to lower income bracket in urbanised areas should find potential in Bahia around Salvador…making it the perfect region of Brazil to be focused on for the future…perhaps.

Is Romania immune to the global fiscal situation that’s squeezing everyone especially in the real estate industry?

Well no, but then again, if you read all the news about the nation’s property market this would seek to contradict negativity in any form!  So, let’s look at the facts and try and determine why the Romanian property market is expanding.

First up you have the negative aspects of the country’s real estate industry: –

According to The Diplomat magazine, in Bucharest the cheapest habitable apartment is available for sale from about EUR 160,000 and the best estimates put average wages at EUR 7,200 a year, so there is something of a discrepancy in affordability!

Next up you have the constructor RomReal advising that inflation in the construction industry is uncomfortably high with the price of cement and steel up around 10-12% since the beginning of the year and wage inflation having risen 15% in 2007 alone.

Added to this is talk that the Israeli investors who flooded the construction market in recent years, particularly in Romania, are finding times are tough when it comes to financing their projects.  In a report in Haaretz.com, Ephraim Shpitalni, chairman of Gamla Millennium Investments which invests in Eastern Europe, states that “nowadays the banks hardly ever approve financing for projects in Bucharest”

So these factors tend to suggest something of a sticky situation brewing in Romania.

But then if you look at the number of new starts under construction or at least in the planning stages you would think that there is nothing wrong.  The constructor Concefa intends to develop several residential projects within the next few years: “our short term development strategy entails the rapid development of our residential projects.  We have already acquired the necessary plots of land, i.e. around 40 hectares, primarily in Sibiu and Brasov.  The projects involve the construction of 4-5,000 housing units, which will retail at an average price of 75-80,000 euros.” That’s according to Horatiu Cercel, the company’s general manager.

Then you have the Spanish real estate group Martinsa-Fadesa which is planning to launch two residential developments this year in Ilfov and in Bacau and construct around 9,600 apartments.  The Romanian developer Bermo Group Arad is expecting to earn EUR 13 million from residential real estate sell off in 2008, another residential project in Bucharest is reported to have been given the EUR 20 million it needs in credit to begin construction, an Irish property developer is planning to build an EUR 591 million shopping centre in Romania, and Concefa Sibiu approved a EUR 28 million real estate development for 400 apartments.

So – far be it from us to say that ‘profiting from property in Romania‘ as a concept is deluded – but really, we can’t quite see what it is that’s supporting such expansion and confidence!

However, you cannot escape the fact that Bulgaria has a growing commercial property market with the value of major deals struck having risen 35% year on year to the month to date, nor can you escape the fact that demand for high grade, spacious and well constructed residential properties in the best locations has not abated.  In these sectors there is demand and profit potential and continued investor interest. 

What’s more, development of some 3 million square meters of vacation space is under construction along the Bulgarian coastline and development of 964,000 square meters is under construction in the prime mountain resorts such as Bansko.  Developers of this property will be keen to sell tomorrow, desperate by next month and offering you some fantastic deals if you’re just prepared to wait a little bit longer!

So, if you concentrate on commercial property in the short term and residential accommodation over the long term, you focus on well constructed property in the best locations and you’re tough on your vendor and force their hand in terms of selling low, you will still be able to profit from the property market in Bulgaria no matter what the rest of the world does in the interim!

The lack of direct flights is the one thing holding the Northern Cypriot property and tourism markets back for example – but for Montenegro things are looking up in both sectors.  Back in 2006 the World Travel and Tourism Council predicted that the nation would become the fastest growing travel and tourism economy in the world…with more direct flights from the UK this prediction is far more likely to come true now.  And already the property market is booming in the nation thanks to corporate investment and high-end international investor commitment.

With more direct flights, it’s likely the smaller property consumer will take a punt on the property market in Montenegro too – if they can find funding to do so of course in this financial day and age!  In terms of the impact the big investors have had on the market already, there has been a 26% increase in luxury real estate prices in Montenegro according to Knight Frank for example, and there is expected to be a massive bidding war now that the government has finally released its long awaited tender for development of Velika Plaza on the Adriatic.

We’ve mentioned this project in previous posts – basically there’s a stunning stretch of virgin Adriatic coastline up for grabs by developers and the government want tenders submitting by interested parties who will work to develop “a unique, multifunctional upscale tourism resort, offering a range of leisure activities in the manner which is conceptually, aesthetically, functionally and environmentally in harmony with the beauty of the natural surrounding and environmental richness of the site.”

We can’t wait to see what transpires.

And finally – Montenegro’s march towards EU entry continues apace according to the country’s recently re-elected president, he has confirmed that Montenegro is working on its ‘homework assignments’ and is not battling deadlines or suffering pressure from the EU for failing in any areas of progress.  Rather the president pointed out to his people that it was up to them all to get behind efforts to achieve targets and ultimately achieve the entire country’s ultimate desire for EU acceptance.  Watch this space…

The company’s standpoint is based on the fact that 15 months of military rule physically restricted the amount of development in the real estate sector so that now there is a shortage of property in Thailand in certain areas – e.g., apartment units in Bangkok for example and residential tourism based resort accommodation as well.

According to the CB Richard Ellis report, since 2003 there have been price increases of up to 12% in the luxury condominium market in Bangkok, and now that there is a physical restriction on the amount of property under construction and coming to completion, these price gains could not only continue, but potentially improve.

They cite likely areas for strong investment activity to include the grade A office sector in Bangkok where there is a massive undersupply and restriction on what actually comes to the market for sale.  Additionally they advise that there will likely be strong investor movement on land for sale in Bangkok’s most attractive areas.

However, however, however, not everything in Thailand is in favour of property investor commitment at this time – which is probably why the brand new government is actually laying out a number of incentives to draw investors back to the market.  For one thing there’s the good old credit crunch – now, this may not be affecting Thailand directly in terms of its citizens being foreclosed upon as, generally speaking, Thai people are cautious investors.  However, it is having a direct impact on the amount of money flowing in to Thailand. 

For example, Singapore and Hong Kong which were both significant investors in Thailand have sub-prime obligations…as does the US, another strong investor in the past. 

Mind you, the credit situation globally is having a lovely sobering effect on the Thai market which bodes well for its long term health – the Bank of Thailand has imposed such restrictions on lending that it’s having a direct impact on property valuations and according to the very sagacious opinion of Scott Bolls from Smith Hodgkinson auctioneers, appraisers and valuers, this has brought realistic valuations to the Thai market which will protect it over the medium to long term.

There are a couple of other issues that would-be investors should be aware about in terms of property in Thailand – there’s the fact that often times, projects are announced but never realised.  Additionally there is the fact that there is a lack of liquidity across the country affecting everything from new project starts to consumer activity – this will have a real effect on the development of the property market and impact on an investor or at least their chosen strategy for profit.  Finally, it’s tricky for an individual to acquire resale real estate in Thailand too…

So, before you believe everything you read in one particular report, ensure you dig a little deeper to find the flaws in a market as well as the potential.  That way at least you’ll be making your decisions with your eyes wide open!

Backing up this theory is the fact that at the recent Invest Malaysia conference, investors were in a very subdued and negative mood, expecting little in the way of investment incentives from the Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi where last year they received the fabulous news that there would be a lifting of the real property gains tax. 

And apart from announcing that there would be a streamlining of the stock exchange which may boost capital markets, little else of note emerged to make property investors or indeed constructors in Malaysia feel very confident about the Malaysian real estate landscape for the short-term.

However, there remain long-term reasons to commit to Malaysia.  It’s an incredibly strong stand alone market with excellent levels of local demand and affordability.  There is also the fact that Malaysia is an attractive tourism destination backing up an investment commitment.  Additional factors that constantly fall in Malaysia’s favour relate to the government’s treatment of foreign investors – i.e., they positively and actively encourage foreign investment – and the fact that legally and taxation wise, foreign investors have exceptional rights and benefits in Malaysia.

So, for the short term the prospects for the real estate economy in Malaysia may be a little bleak, but that’s not to say you should give up on the nation as a property investment hotspot just yet!

If you want to invest in hotels, Istanbul is also your best bet, and it’s a good market for industrial and office property investment too…but unless you’re buying in cash, don’t bother thinking about property investment for the time being.

This is because a further trend highlighted in the report relates to finance hungry investors who require funding for investment acquisitions, they are being elbowed aside by cash buyers.  So many mortgage products have been withdrawn from the international property scene, so much would-be cash has been taken out of the pot for property borrowers and an increasing number of financial institutions are simply shying away from any level of real estate lending exposure.

So, it’s a cash buyer’s market – and for those who want to get the most for their money and out of their money, Istanbul’s property landscape is the best place to consider investment.

In a further roundup of the most interesting elements of the fascinating ‘Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2008’ report we can reveal that Dublin is just about the worst place you can invest right now, London is also particularly unfavourable, Spain and the UK are considered ‘no go’ areas with investors at the moment, and developers need to be aware that consumers are becoming greener, (environmentally speaking not in terms of their naivety), when it comes to the choices they make relating to property based investment decisions.

These factors alone have resulted in significant speculative behaviour in the market, particularly among constructors.  And so a would-be buyer has an awful lot of choice in Panama.  Considering the market in Panama City alone for a moment, for this is where the majority of investment focus is at the moment, there is the chance to buy in off plan, flip before completion and take out a nice tidy sum in the form of capital appreciation...there is also the chance to buy as close to the CBD as possible so that you can corporate let and achieve excellent rental yields.  But there is also the prospect of buying something that will never be completed or which will be low grade and impossible to rent or resell.

With choice comes responsibility – i.e., it is your responsibility to ensure that which you are buying will be delivered and that it will meet your expectations for it.  So, this is the first consideration in Panama.  So much construction is under way that when all the units being constructed reach completion, there will be a period of saturation both on the rental and the resale market.  You need to ensure that what you are buying will stand out – so, it needs to be well located, well constructed and well finished.

If you’re buying a resale property ensure you speak to the vendor – even if you have to employ an independent translator for a couple of hours.  This is because there’s a new trick in Panama – the realtor tells you the price, you agree it and it’s actually a greatly inflated price to that which the vendor was asking.  Naturally the realtor pockets the difference – as well as their fee!  Nice!  The estate agents are wise to the fact that British and European buying power in Panama is very strong at the moment you see.  The Panamanian currency is pegged one to one with the US dollar – and so the likes of you and me are arriving and are blown away by just how cheap everything is!  Be careful, be astute, don’t take anything for granted, ask for guarantees and above all else, do your own due diligence, don’t rely on anyone else solely to give you the facts and answers you need.

Look at the rights you’re buying regarding the title deed of any property – seriously consider avoiding anything with ‘possession rights’ only unless you love high risk investment – this is because you may find you own very little in the way of rights to the real estate if you settle on this type of deed.  And finally, and above all else – employ an independent, respected lawyer to assist you!

The president of the EU’s executive agency stated earlier this month that the European Commission in Brussels: “will present an indicative timetable for the technical conclusion of the negotiations in 2009, provided a number of conditions are met by Croatia.” Which is the closest anyone has ever got to giving a firm timetable for Croatia’s accession.  This statement has been accepted by the wider world as meaning that Croatia will become the 28th member of the European Union in 2010.

Pre-EU entry, buyers are going to be able to bag property related bargains because it is post entry that the real economic transformation of the nation’s fortunes is predicted to occur.  Post entry Croatia will be able to trade more competitively and directly with the rest of Europe making it a more attractive nation to enter for international businesses looking for a hub in the region for example.  What’s more, those businesses already in operation in Croatia will be able to expand possibly, and there are predications that there will be a much more affluent economy across the country as a whole.

Post entry Croatia can apply for funding from the EU, it can apply to join the euro zone and it can lock in to ECB interest rates.  Additionally entry is seen as a way for greater economic expansion which should in theory be passed on to Croatian citizens making them more affluent and in a better position to acquire property in Croatia themselves.

So, getting in now ahead of EU entry could offer an investor the chance to buy in ahead of an increase in demand and affluence and therefore, the chance to buy in ahead of price gains and rental yield expansion.

Other reasons why now may be a good time to buy Croatian property include the fact Iran has stated that it is willing to supply gas to Europe via Croatia.  Sure, the mention of Iran isn’t going to get property investors particularly excited – but the thought of Croatia being a key hub for the supply of a valuable natural resource to the wealthy nations in Europe such as Austria and Switzerland should make people sit up and take notice.  If this proposed business partnering goes ahead, Croatia could become a very wealthy nation off the back of it.

Other indicators that Croatia’s fortunes are rising and that its citizens are benefiting is the fact that leading shopping centre developer Sonae Sierra sees potential in Croatia for the creation of new malls.  This indicates that the citizens of the nation are getting richer and when this happens it creates a platform for both expanding real estate prices and greater affordability so that locals can afford to buy stock.  Good news for investors seeking a viable exit strategy then.

Also positively in Croatia’s property market’s favour is the fact that tourism in the nation is developing rapidly and supplying another arm for the economy’s expansion.  The nation moved up from its last year’s position significantly in the recent World Economic Forum’s survey relating to competitiveness of tourism and travel in nations around the world.  Added to this is the fact that the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is giving Croatia’s tourism industry a direct boost in the form of an equity investment worth EUR 24 million.  It has already provided EUR 1.8 billion for the financial services sector and for infrastructure development in the nation and it has helped the nation secure an additional EUR 5 billion in foreign direct investment.  This proves just how much international faith there is in the emergence of Croatia as a competitive and attractive nation.

If you have similar faith, now could very well be the right time to buy property in Croatia.

This means an investor considering buy to let can buy in off plan, enjoy the relative comfort that off plan payment arrangements offer, seek finance on the completed project and know that once the apartment in Istanbul is finished there will probably have been an increase in underlying value and there will almost certainly be waiting demand ready, willing and able to rent the unit and pay handsomely for it!

If you want to eat your cake and have it, (think about that), you can do so in Istanbul’s housing market currently – and you don’t have to be a billionaire to buy in.  With prices starting from under GBP 40,000 for one bedroom apartments being sold off plan in developments with communal amenities and within reach of the airport for example, you can’t say the Istanbul property market is out of reach.

Of course, if you want to pay more and attract a potentially more affluent tenant base and benefit from having a home that will possibly be easier to resell when you want to release your capital, why not look at the developments under construction in the city that come with more unusual selling points.  For example, there are developments for sale with the inclusion of an ice rink within the package of communal leisure facilities, or there are developments offering the very best of the best in terms of every aspect of the interior design – for example, one Emaar development in the Buyukcekmece district of Istanbul comes with Spanish Porcelanosa ceramics, Italian Snaidero kitchens, Miele white goods, LG air conditioning systems and so on and so forth!

Istanbul is a city of immense popularity with foreign investors, it is a city witnessing a massive boom in its economic fortunes, it is a city enjoying increased tourism and therefore it is a city certainly worthy of closer inspection by would-be property investors because it supports many investment approaches, it can be affordable to get a foot hold in and at the same time, it offers one of the broadest spectra of property in Turkey in terms of affordability that there is something of appeal to everyone.

The benefit for foreign investors in this particular corner of Europe is that property ownership rules and regulations are straightforward with no need for the registration of costly and cumbersome limited companies for example.  On top of this, the government of Montenegro is actively encouraging investment and doing all it can to win greater international commitment.  This is resulting in a – dare we say it – win win situation…

In the latest round of ‘positive’ government interventions, Montenegro’s beaches are going up for rent – this will of course attract property and tourism based investment interest and ensure the country receives significant revenue as well as the creation of employment.  So not only are the Russians getting richer off the back of Montenegro, the government is also profiting, and slowly but eventually this increase in a nation’s affluence is transferring to the people.

In terms of the latest round of developments to be aware of – the Delta City group is set to open its first mega mall in Montenegro in the summer.  It’ll be located in the capital city of Podgorica where there is growing potential for a buy to let property investment approach.  Or for those who want to get in ahead of the (mainly Russian) crowd, there’s news that the government is seeking expressions of interest in developing “a world-class destination resort” on the Bigovo cove in Donji Grbaljon on Traste Bay near Budva and Tivat.  This part of Montenegro will likely benefit massively from the development over the medium term, and so the location represents a fantastic buy in for those looking to land or real estate bank.

There is still room to manoeuvre and profit in Montenegro’s property market – but it is getting harder and harder to beat the eager international investors who come armed with serious cash…

For those with property in Northern Cyprus this is hugely exciting news. 

It means that Turkish Cypriots are one step closer to having the isolation levelled against them ended, and it may well mean that direct flights, an open and affluent tourism market and therefore a buoyant property scene are also a step closer.

In 2004 when Cyprus was on the verge of joining the EU there was a joint referendum to decide whether Cyprus should join together – the Turkish Cypriots voted ‘yes’ and, after being advised to do so by President Papadopoulos, the Greek Cypriots voted ‘no’…now whilst both candidates for president have said that they want to restart talks, it is believed that they both want Cyprus to become two separate states and for the division to simply be one of rule rather than one of border posts and armies.

If a referendum were to again occur, it’s highly likely that this is what the people from both sides of the island would now vote for as well. 

Cyprus joined the EU in 2004, but the EU acquis - which is the body of common rights and obligations - only applies to the Republic of Cyprus.  If a decision can be reached allowing both sides of the island to self-govern and be equally recognised as members of the European Union this will have an immediate and dramatic effect on property prices.

Those who have bought property in North Cyprus at vastly lower rates compared to those in south Cyprus will potentially see prices rise overnight – so if you’re looking for a slightly edgy and controversial but potentially high returning property investment opportunity – buy property in North Cyprus in 2008!

Previously the economy in Brazil was a joke with the currency as volatile as the Turkish Lira once was and the entire nation over exposed to fluctuations in America’s fortunes.  It was against this backdrop of financial insecurity that Brazil was attempting to win foreign direct investment into all sectors including the Brazilian property market - and largely failing to get anything other than speculative, short term, damaging investment that took advantage of the nation’s unstable state.

Following the election of President Lula da Silva the situation in Brazil has dramatically changed, at least in direct respect of the economy.  For example, through economic diversification, productivity improvements, higher international commodity prices and overall economic reform, Brazil is now believed to be on the cusp of achieving investment-grade rating by the likes of Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.

This total transformation has taken a great deal of time and effort – but it has been tried, tested and not shown to be precarious.  Which is why the local currency is riding higher than it has since May 1999 against the US dollar according to a Bloomberg report, why investors are buying in to the Brazilian stock market and why so much direct investment is flowing specifically into the nation’s property market.

Property in Brazil has become a must have commodity for anyone and everyone from your next door neighbour who wants a place in the sun to the landlord seeking location diversification for greater yield stability.  There are profits to be derived from the Brazilian real estate marketplace whether you prefer to target capital appreciation potential in Natal or yields from commercial property in Rio.  And now you can feel more confident about committing to Brazil for the longer term because its economy is showing signs of remaining robust - so this opens up even more areas of profitability potential.  It’s no wonder we’re so hot on property in Brazil is it really!

In terms of the numbers of Brits already having bought property in Morocco, this figure is set to increase as a steady inward flow of investment continues from UK based buyers who are betting on a market which is already producing annual capital appreciation reported to be in the region of between 15 and 30%, as well as offering the potential for greater rental yields as tourism is set to increase by an average of at least 4% per annum between now and 2016, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council. 

And the British are not the only ones to be aware of the appeal of Morocco and the potential in its property market; according to The Observer newspaper the nation is luring in Spanish and Italian buyers in equal numbers and a high concentration of French purchasers too.  Because French is widely spoken in Morocco following France’s long protectorate over the nation which ended in 1956, it is only natural that the French should be lured to Morocco and in particular, the Costa Vista or Mediterranean Riviera region which rivals France’s own.

It’s the stunningly beautiful, historically and culturally rich region of Costa Vista that Real Estate TV’s latest edition of ‘The Next Big Thing’ concentrates on, as this is one of the most attractive parts of Morocco - both literally and in terms of the developing opportunity it offers investment and lifestyle home buyers.  It is also the number one centre for expatriate inward migration in Morocco according to local expert opinion, and where a large concentration of brand new property development interest has centred.

Located directly opposite the Costa del Sol and separated from Spain by just a thin stretch of the Mediterranean Sea, it is impossible not to draw comparisons between the Costa Vista and the Costa del Sol.  Both offer up a fabulous climate, a stunning landscape, pristine beaches and a fantastically laidback lifestyle, but this is where the positive comparisons end.  Whilst the Costa del Sol is suffering its worst winter sun season according to Spain’s Association of Hoteliers, the Costa Vista and Morocco enjoyed the highest visitor numbers last year for forty years.  Additionally, according to the Sunday Herald, property prices in parts of the Costa del Sol have declined recently, whereas, according to an article in The Times, there are those who have witnessed up to a doubling of property prices in Morocco.  It’s of little surprise therefore that the Costa Vista is being heralded as the ‘next big thing’ in the world of overseas property investment.

Specialist in investment, agency, valuation, consultancy and research, Eurisko is key to promoting the benefits of commercial property investment in Romania and what’s more, they have assisted companies to relocate to the nation as well.  Bulgaria was recently seen as losing out significantly to Romania when it comes to commercial commitment simply because the Romania’s have moved faster – moved faster to construct stock and moved faster with attractive taxation and legislation reforms to bring in big companies.

Nokia have relocated significant operations from Germany to Romania and have made a thirty-year commitment to the nation in order to achieve the most attractive taxation breaks possible.  As long as they remain committed to Romania for thirty years they will pay no property tax and only 16% flat corporation tax – how could Germany compete?

Nokia have bought in to an industrial park in Jucu near Cluj and already some of their suppliers are making a move on remaining space in the industrial park. 

Nokia is one of the highest profile companies to make the move to Romania because of the upset created by them leaving Germany.  But if you look at the property news headlines in Romania it is totally dominated with stories of companies relocating lock, stock and barrel to Romania or of choosing the nation for their expansion into central and eastern Europe.

So successful is commercial property in Romania as a capital appreciating asset and/or an attractive rental and lease yield generating commodity that the Lewis Charles Romania Property Fund Ltd said the value of the Fund’s portfolio had increased from EUR 33.8 million by the end of December 2007 from a purchase cost of EUR 27.2 million, and a spokesperson for the company has stated that they expect 2008 to be another positive year for the Fund.

And funds like these have plenty of room for expansion in Romania, Extenso are opening four more stores in Romania, there is a shopping and entertainment complex being constructed in Honedoara and all across the nation there is expansion, relocation and development in the commercial property sector.

Shying away from complete reliance on the emergence of a residential market, Romania’s authorities have been highly sagacious in honing legislation and targeting tax reform at the commercial sector.  It’s clear, Romania wants to be the leading commercial centre for the central and eastern European region, and it is also clear that it is well on its way to achieving its goal.

Now Bulgaria is importing far more than it is exporting because of growing consumer demand.  In 2007 there was an 18.7% increase in imports which equated to an outward spending of 20.8 billion euros compared to a 13.4 billion euro increase in export income coming into Bulgaria.  This fact coupled with the widening account deficit has analysts in a bit of tizzy about investment into Bulgaria.  Clearly the nation is relying heavily on its attraction for foreign direct investment, but if a worsening of the global credit situation is encountered, this could impact negatively on the amount of FDI flowing into the nation and seriously undermine the health of the economy.

Added to this is the fact that some are predicting many individual British, Irish and European investors with property in Bulgaria are now dumping their real estate assets and that fewer new investors are likely to enter the market in 2008.  There is no concrete evidence to back up these opinions however, but the reasons cited relate to a tightening of yields, a slowing in terms of price appreciation and the fact that some regions of the nation now have a reputation for unattractive property assets.

Countering this argument is the chief executive of UniCredit Bulbank, Levon Hampartzoumian.  UniCredit Bulbank is the largest Bulgarian bank and Levon Hampartzoumian is determined that there is room for consistent long term growth in many sectors of Bulgaria’s real estate market.  He also advised journalists at a recent press conference that because the business climate and economic models in Bulgaria follow a different pattern to those in the likes of the US and the UK, the nation would be spared any serious knock-on effects from a downturn in leading economies in the world – this doesn’t sound very realistic, but who are we to comment!

Mr. Hampartzoumian did admit that there was far less room for profitability in the residential property market in Bulgaria now, but he said this just meant that investors’ approaches to the market were adapting with focus now on a longer-term strategy.  He suggested that there was far more room for consistent and solid yields in other sectors of the property economy such as in retail, office and logistics.  According to UniCredit, yields of 7.5% are achievable upon average in the office sector, 8.5% in retail and 9% in logistics with the latter sector of growing interest because of the amount of EU money going into the construction and development of five transport corridors across Bulgaria. 

The towns and cities of Sofia, Varna, Plovdiv, Bourgas, Pleven, Rousse and Vidin are most likely to see a positive knock on effect in terms of demand for real estate and price appreciation as a result of the development of the transport corridors, and they may therefore be the best locations for property investors who are still interested in Bulgaria but who are prepared to look to the longer-term for profitability.

So – on the positive side we have excellent fundamentals in place in Morocco supporting a property investment decision.  For example, because adverse weather conditions seriously affected the agriculture industry last year and undermined the economy, this has added greater resolve to the government to diversify the financial future of the nation away from this sector. 

According to a report in Reuters, output from the cereal harvest in Morocco dropped from 8.3 million tonnes in 2006 to just 2 million in 2007 resulting in a contraction in this economic sector of almost 20%.  This, combined with other adverse factors, saw the Moroccan economy expand by an unimpressive 2.2% in 2007 according to the High Planning Commission.

To completely reverse the declining economic fortunes of the nation there are schemes in place, plans under development and positive actions taking place in Morocco - and it is these factors which are creating an air of positive expectation which should draw the attentions of a would-be property investor! 

First things first there is Vision 2010 which is now entering its second phase.  This is a plan that was enacted by the King of Morocco to create an environment for sustainable investment in his nation with specific focus levelled on the legal environment, innovation and monitoring technology, marketing and communication, and organisational structure and human resources.  The underlying objective of Vision 2010 is to make Morocco more attractive and robust an environment for foreign direct investment.

The real estate industry and tourism industries have both benefited off the back of this plan as the environment for the development of both has improved significantly.  Tourism numbers are up, government support is in place for the development of luxurious real estate, major international constructors have committed to developing property in Morocco and this is why so many developers and agents are now in Morocco marketing their wares to Europeans and North Americans.  But that alone is not sufficient proof that now is the time to invest in property in Morocco.

What about infrastructure, what about accessibility, what about the long term desirability of the nation, what about affordability…?

Well, according to a report in the International Herald Tribune, where the luxurious new resort style real estate developments are going in, so is the required infrastructure for accessibility.  And, added to this is the fact that Morocco now has an open skies agreement in place which means gone is the stranglehold a couple of airlines had on the nation’s airports and in have flown low cost carriers from across Europe. 

In terms of affordability – well, the luxury resorts which are being developed across Morocco are being marketed to an international market.  So, if you buy in to any of these you needn’t worry about local affordability – you need to concern yourself with the long term desirability of the nation and indeed your property if you want to rent or resell.  However, local affordability is actually a concern and one which most investors are completely unaware of.  If Moroccans see their nation developing around them and the benefits only being accessible to seemingly wealthy overseas nationals who fly in and out when it suits them, underlying feelings of resentment may grow.

This has happened time and time again in emerging markets and it can completely destabilise the positive development of a country completely.  Fortunately the authorities in Morocco are aware of this fact and are seeking to address the high levels of unemployment and poverty in the country in a number of ways.  This ties back in with the aforementioned way in which the government is seeking to diversify the economy.  The King of Morocco has recognised his country’s geographic advantage and resultant strategic advantage.  It is the closest point linking Europe with Africa and now a massive project is underway to build the largest port in the Mediterranean just east of Tangier.  The port will be the front to an impressive logistics and industrial zone employing at least 100,000 and adding significantly to the economy and therefore the underlying affluence of local Moroccan people.

Renault and Nissan have already seen the potential of the port, the affordability of setting up operations in Morocco and the long term opportunity now being created in Tangier.  They have committed to a multi million pound investment into developing a factory in Tangier to produce up to 400,000 cars annually – and their commitment has set a serious precedent for other companies to follow.

The final positive factor that we would like to raise in support of a property investment commitment in Morocco is the fact that Standard and Poor’s have come out in support of the Moroccan banking sector.  Whilst their support is slightly muted with an undertone of warning about untested credit growth for example, they cite strong levels of profitability and maturity in funding performance as supporting their placing of Morocco in Group 8 of their global Banking Industry Country Risk Assessments.

This is just a small peak at what’s going on in emerging Morocco – but it should give substance to your property investment decisions or at least inspire you to look more closely at the fundamentals supporting a potential investment commitment…