If we’ve told you once we’ve told you a thousand times – property prices in Latvia cannot keep going up! And incase you have yet to cure your addiction to investment property returns in Latvia we’ve a whole host of new facts, data, figures and statistics to prove to you that if you really do want to be in this particular market you need to be in it for the long term.
For a start construction costs in Latvia rose by a startling 30% in just the first quarter of 2007 alone – this in spite of the fact that the government in Latvia introduced some serious inflation busting plans earlier this year. Then you have economists warning that despite what the government wants in terms of inflation reduction, they could be about to fuel the construction and inflation fire even further by allowing the development of three ambitious construction projects all at the same time…
Latvia is just one of a handful of former Soviet controlled countries riding high on a wave of economic advancement, increasing wages, spiralling property prices and runaway inflation - and until recently everyone seemed certain that the Latvian phenomenon of double digit GDP growth, quadrupling property prices and rapid wage expansion could continue unabated and have no negative effects on the economy at all! That was until Standard and Poor’s pointed out that “there are clear signs of overheating” as well as an “escalated risk of a hard landing” in Latvia.
It seems that general investor sentiment is slow to react to this news but property prices in Latvia cannot keep going up you guys, and you need to heed some of the following warning signs and protect yourselves and your level of exposure accordingly.
To say that opinions relating to Latvia’s property prospects for 2007 are mixed is putting it mildly. The division of opinion relating to Latvian property as an economic sector and the likely path its fortunes will follow in 2007 is so sharp and so dramatic that we have decided to present you with both sides of the argument for you to make a decision about the country and its viability for your own portfolio.
On the one hand we have just received word from Knight Frank that property prices in Latvia in the third quarter 2006 rose by a staggering 39.2% and on the other hand we have economists warning that the success of Latvia’s property market and the positive GDP growth figures it is recording are drawing the government’s attention away from a very real need to establish an environment conducive of sustainable growth in Latvia, and that this could bring about economic overheating and inflation spiralling out of control.
Strong investor interest in Latvia has been emerging since 2000 with initial investor focus centered firmly on the capital city of Riga where, according to research undertaken by Bloomberg, house prices have at least doubled in the past two years and where there have been local reports of price increases of anywhere between 300 and 800% in the last 5 years.
We felt it was time to offer our readers a property in Latvia overview from our in house Latvia specialist: in our interview with the Amberlamb Latvian property investment expert we recap the property buying process, we identify factors driving the success of the investment property market currently and we help investors determine whether the residential and commercial sectors have legs to run…
The economy in Latvia is thriving – some might say it’s booming, others might suggest that it’s overheating – but no one can deny the figures and they point to the fact that over the past five quarters the economy in Latvia has grown by double digits and there is nothing to suggest that the pace of growth is going to slow anytime soon - and it’s this thriving economy that’s driving Latvia’s property market.
In 2005 Latvia returned the strongest growth in the office property market of all Central and Eastern European countries and Latvia commercial property as a general sector outperformed commercial property sectors in many Western European nations as well. The desirability of Latvian commercial property stems from the fact that overhead costs are lower in Latvia, infrastructure is good and improving and international companies who relocate to Latvia can consolidate costs through relocation.
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